Forex MegaDroid Backtest Results for April 2009

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Somewhat later than anticipated after my recent trials and tribulations, here are our Forex MegaDroid backtest results for April.  This test was performed using version 1.11 of the robot, since the original version now refuses to run backtests.  This test used the default input settings, with the following exceptions, mainly required because the test used Alpari UK as the MetaTrader broker, and they support micro-lots and 5 decimal places.

GmtOffset = +1; Slippage = 30; LotSize = 0.01

Note that we're still using MetaTrader 4.00 build 220, and also that the initial deposit was set to $500, which is sufficient to give the default money management system (RiskSize = 0.1) a bit of room for manoeuvre.

Total profit for the 5 weeks of the test was $73.36. Remember that the MegaDroid uses "new artificial intelligence technology called Reverse Correlated Time And Price Analysis" and currently costs $97.00?

Compare that with example 2 from the Trading Gurus course on how to build your own forex trading system. That uses essentially random entries, costs nothing whatsoever, and made a profit (in backtests only, NOT in a live trading account!) of $242.52 over exactly the same period?

Which do you suppose is the better trading system?

Here are the results from the MetaTrader strategy tester for Forex MegaDroid for April 2009:

Strategy Tester Report
MegaDroid
Symbol EURUSD (Euro vs US Dollar)
Period 1 Minute (M1) 2009.03.30 00:00 – 2009.05.01 22:59 (2009.03.30 – 2009.05.02)
Model Every tick (the most precise method based on all available least timeframes)
Parameters Version="1.00"; _1="System Parameters"; Stealth=true;
Aggressive=true;
GmtOffset=1; AutoGmtOffset=false;
S1_Reference=337733; S2_Reference=773377; ReceiptCode=""; _2="Strategy Parameters"; TopPadding=1; LeftPadding=30; _3="Order Management"; Slippage=30; SendEmails=false;
_4="Ratio Order Management"; LotSize=0.01; _5="Ratio Order Management"; RiskLevel=0.1; RecoveryMode=true;
Bars in test 35815 Ticks modelled 953439 Modelling quality 25.00%
Mismatched charts errors 0
Initial deposit 500.00
Total net profit 73.76 Gross profit 86.44 Gross loss -12.68
Profit factor 6.82 Expected payoff 3.88
Absolute drawdown 5.14 Maximal drawdown 31.64 (5.93%) Relative drawdown 5.93% (31.64)
Total trades 19 Short positions (won %) 11 (90.91%) Long positions (won %) 8 (87.50%)
Profit trades (% of total) 17 (89.47%) Loss trades (% of total) 2 (10.53%)
Largest profit trade 12.80 loss trade -12.68
Average profit trade 5.08 loss trade -6.34
Maximum consecutive wins (profit in money) 10 (58.86) consecutive losses (loss in money) 1 (-12.68)
Maximal consecutive profit (count of wins) 58.86 (10) consecutive loss (count of losses) -12.68 (1)
Average consecutive wins 6 consecutive losses 1

Graph

# Time Type Order Size Price S / L T / P Profit Balance
1 2009.04.01 23:00 sell 1 0.04 1.32482 1.33640 1.31882
2 2009.04.01 23:10 close 1 0.04 1.32328 1.33640 1.31882 6.16 506.16
3 2009.04.02 22:14 sell 2 0.04 1.34595 1.35179 1.34095
4 2009.04.02 23:08 sell 3 0.04 1.34670 1.35607 1.34070
5 2009.04.02 23:52 close 2 0.04 1.34588 1.35179 1.34095 0.28 506.44
6 2009.04.03 02:37 close 3 0.04 1.34518 1.35607 1.34070 6.02 512.46
7 2009.04.06 22:01 sell 4 0.04 1.34146 1.35664 1.33646
8 2009.04.06 23:32 close 4 0.04 1.34072 1.35664 1.33646 2.96 515.42
9 2009.04.06 23:37 buy 5 0.04 1.33982 1.33559 1.34482
10 2009.04.07 00:58 close 5 0.04 1.34023 1.33559 1.34482 1.68 517.11
11 2009.04.08 22:09 sell 6 0.04 1.32589 1.33112 1.32089
12 2009.04.08 23:00 sell 7 0.04 1.32822 1.34062 1.32222
13 2009.04.08 23:24 close 7 0.04 1.32668 1.34062 1.32222 6.16 523.27
14 2009.04.09 00:19 close 6 0.04 1.32585 1.33112 1.32089 -0.01 523.26
15 2009.04.09 23:58 buy 8 0.04 1.31553 1.31235 1.32153
16 2009.04.09 23:58 buy 9 0.04 1.31521 1.31203 1.32021
17 2009.04.09 23:59 close 9 0.04 1.31629 1.31203 1.32021 4.32 527.58
18 2009.04.10 01:21 s/l 8 0.04 1.31235 1.31235 1.32153 -12.68 514.90
19 2009.04.13 22:11 sell 10 0.08 1.33923 1.34241 1.33423
20 2009.04.13 22:15 close 10 0.08 1.33818 1.34241 1.33423 8.40 523.30
21 2009.04.14 22:10 buy 11 0.08 1.32658 1.32243 1.33158
22 2009.04.14 23:09 buy 12 0.08 1.32543 1.31697 1.33143
23 2009.04.14 23:44 close 11 0.08 1.32661 1.32243 1.33158 0.24 523.54
24 2009.04.14 23:44 close 12 0.08 1.32703 1.31697 1.33143 12.80 536.34
25 2009.04.15 22:00 sell 13 0.05 1.32208 1.32973 1.31708
26 2009.04.15 23:01 sell 14 0.04 1.32306 1.33263 1.31706
27 2009.04.15 23:40 close 13 0.05 1.32170 1.32973 1.31708 1.90 538.24
28 2009.04.15 23:42 close 14 0.04 1.32145 1.33263 1.31706 6.44 544.68
29 2009.04.15 23:49 buy 15 0.05 1.32110 1.31446 1.32610
30 2009.04.16 00:41 close 15 0.05 1.32210 1.31446 1.32610 5.17 549.85
31 2009.04.16 23:03 sell 16 0.05 1.31915 1.32743 1.31315
32 2009.04.16 23:28 close 16 0.05 1.31761 1.32743 1.31315 7.70 557.55
33 2009.04.20 23:15 buy 17 0.05 1.29164 1.28676 1.29764
34 2009.04.21 01:07 close 17 0.05 1.29314 1.28676 1.29764 7.55 565.10
35 2009.04.21 22:38 sell 18 0.05 1.29502 1.29944 1.29002
36 2009.04.21 23:23 close 18 0.05 1.29400 1.29944 1.29002 5.10 570.20
37 2009.04.27 23:22 buy 19 0.05 1.30179 1.29861 1.30679
38 2009.04.28 00:48 close 19 0.05 1.30249 1.29861 1.30679 3.56 573.76

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Comments on Forex MegaDroid Backtest Results for April 2009 Leave a Comment

May 8, 2009

nico @ 12:57 pm #

very interesting!!!!

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