Forex MegaDroid Backtest Results for April 2009
Somewhat later than anticipated after my recent trials and tribulations, here are our Forex MegaDroid backtest results for April. This test was performed using version 1.11 of the robot, since the original version now refuses to run backtests. This test used the default input settings, with the following exceptions, mainly required because the test used Alpari UK as the MetaTrader broker, and they support micro-lots and 5 decimal places.
GmtOffset = +1; Slippage = 30; LotSize = 0.01
Note that we're still using MetaTrader 4.00 build 220, and also that the initial deposit was set to $500, which is sufficient to give the default money management system (RiskSize = 0.1) a bit of room for manoeuvre.
Total profit for the 5 weeks of the test was $73.36. Remember that the MegaDroid uses "new artificial intelligence technology called Reverse Correlated Time And Price Analysis" and currently costs $97.00?
Compare that with example 2 from the Trading Gurus course on how to build your own forex trading system. That uses essentially random entries, costs nothing whatsoever, and made a profit (in backtests only, NOT in a live trading account!) of $242.52 over exactly the same period?
Which do you suppose is the better trading system?
Here are the results from the MetaTrader strategy tester for Forex MegaDroid for April 2009:
| Symbol | EURUSD (Euro vs US Dollar) | ||||
| Period | 1 Minute (M1) 2009.03.30 00:00 – 2009.05.01 22:59 (2009.03.30 – 2009.05.02) | ||||
| Model | Every tick (the most precise method based on all available least timeframes) | ||||
| Parameters | Version="1.00"; _1="System Parameters"; Stealth=true; Aggressive=true; GmtOffset=1; AutoGmtOffset=false; S1_Reference=337733; S2_Reference=773377; ReceiptCode=""; _2="Strategy Parameters"; TopPadding=1; LeftPadding=30; _3="Order Management"; Slippage=30; SendEmails=false; _4="Ratio Order Management"; LotSize=0.01; _5="Ratio Order Management"; RiskLevel=0.1; RecoveryMode=true; |
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| Bars in test | 35815 | Ticks modelled | 953439 | Modelling quality | 25.00% |
| Mismatched charts errors | 0 | ||||
| Initial deposit | 500.00 | ||||
| Total net profit | 73.76 | Gross profit | 86.44 | Gross loss | -12.68 |
| Profit factor | 6.82 | Expected payoff | 3.88 | ||
| Absolute drawdown | 5.14 | Maximal drawdown | 31.64 (5.93%) | Relative drawdown | 5.93% (31.64) |
| Total trades | 19 | Short positions (won %) | 11 (90.91%) | Long positions (won %) | 8 (87.50%) |
| Profit trades (% of total) | 17 (89.47%) | Loss trades (% of total) | 2 (10.53%) | ||
| Largest | profit trade | 12.80 | loss trade | -12.68 | |
| Average | profit trade | 5.08 | loss trade | -6.34 | |
| Maximum | consecutive wins (profit in money) | 10 (58.86) | consecutive losses (loss in money) | 1 (-12.68) | |
| Maximal | consecutive profit (count of wins) | 58.86 (10) | consecutive loss (count of losses) | -12.68 (1) | |
| Average | consecutive wins | 6 | consecutive losses | 1 | |
| # | Time | Type | Order | Size | Price | S / L | T / P | Profit | Balance |
| 1 | 2009.04.01 23:00 | sell | 1 | 0.04 | 1.32482 | 1.33640 | 1.31882 | ||
| 2 | 2009.04.01 23:10 | close | 1 | 0.04 | 1.32328 | 1.33640 | 1.31882 | 6.16 | 506.16 |
| 3 | 2009.04.02 22:14 | sell | 2 | 0.04 | 1.34595 | 1.35179 | 1.34095 | ||
| 4 | 2009.04.02 23:08 | sell | 3 | 0.04 | 1.34670 | 1.35607 | 1.34070 | ||
| 5 | 2009.04.02 23:52 | close | 2 | 0.04 | 1.34588 | 1.35179 | 1.34095 | 0.28 | 506.44 |
| 6 | 2009.04.03 02:37 | close | 3 | 0.04 | 1.34518 | 1.35607 | 1.34070 | 6.02 | 512.46 |
| 7 | 2009.04.06 22:01 | sell | 4 | 0.04 | 1.34146 | 1.35664 | 1.33646 | ||
| 8 | 2009.04.06 23:32 | close | 4 | 0.04 | 1.34072 | 1.35664 | 1.33646 | 2.96 | 515.42 |
| 9 | 2009.04.06 23:37 | buy | 5 | 0.04 | 1.33982 | 1.33559 | 1.34482 | ||
| 10 | 2009.04.07 00:58 | close | 5 | 0.04 | 1.34023 | 1.33559 | 1.34482 | 1.68 | 517.11 |
| 11 | 2009.04.08 22:09 | sell | 6 | 0.04 | 1.32589 | 1.33112 | 1.32089 | ||
| 12 | 2009.04.08 23:00 | sell | 7 | 0.04 | 1.32822 | 1.34062 | 1.32222 | ||
| 13 | 2009.04.08 23:24 | close | 7 | 0.04 | 1.32668 | 1.34062 | 1.32222 | 6.16 | 523.27 |
| 14 | 2009.04.09 00:19 | close | 6 | 0.04 | 1.32585 | 1.33112 | 1.32089 | -0.01 | 523.26 |
| 15 | 2009.04.09 23:58 | buy | 8 | 0.04 | 1.31553 | 1.31235 | 1.32153 | ||
| 16 | 2009.04.09 23:58 | buy | 9 | 0.04 | 1.31521 | 1.31203 | 1.32021 | ||
| 17 | 2009.04.09 23:59 | close | 9 | 0.04 | 1.31629 | 1.31203 | 1.32021 | 4.32 | 527.58 |
| 18 | 2009.04.10 01:21 | s/l | 8 | 0.04 | 1.31235 | 1.31235 | 1.32153 | -12.68 | 514.90 |
| 19 | 2009.04.13 22:11 | sell | 10 | 0.08 | 1.33923 | 1.34241 | 1.33423 | ||
| 20 | 2009.04.13 22:15 | close | 10 | 0.08 | 1.33818 | 1.34241 | 1.33423 | 8.40 | 523.30 |
| 21 | 2009.04.14 22:10 | buy | 11 | 0.08 | 1.32658 | 1.32243 | 1.33158 | ||
| 22 | 2009.04.14 23:09 | buy | 12 | 0.08 | 1.32543 | 1.31697 | 1.33143 | ||
| 23 | 2009.04.14 23:44 | close | 11 | 0.08 | 1.32661 | 1.32243 | 1.33158 | 0.24 | 523.54 |
| 24 | 2009.04.14 23:44 | close | 12 | 0.08 | 1.32703 | 1.31697 | 1.33143 | 12.80 | 536.34 |
| 25 | 2009.04.15 22:00 | sell | 13 | 0.05 | 1.32208 | 1.32973 | 1.31708 | ||
| 26 | 2009.04.15 23:01 | sell | 14 | 0.04 | 1.32306 | 1.33263 | 1.31706 | ||
| 27 | 2009.04.15 23:40 | close | 13 | 0.05 | 1.32170 | 1.32973 | 1.31708 | 1.90 | 538.24 |
| 28 | 2009.04.15 23:42 | close | 14 | 0.04 | 1.32145 | 1.33263 | 1.31706 | 6.44 | 544.68 |
| 29 | 2009.04.15 23:49 | buy | 15 | 0.05 | 1.32110 | 1.31446 | 1.32610 | ||
| 30 | 2009.04.16 00:41 | close | 15 | 0.05 | 1.32210 | 1.31446 | 1.32610 | 5.17 | 549.85 |
| 31 | 2009.04.16 23:03 | sell | 16 | 0.05 | 1.31915 | 1.32743 | 1.31315 | ||
| 32 | 2009.04.16 23:28 | close | 16 | 0.05 | 1.31761 | 1.32743 | 1.31315 | 7.70 | 557.55 |
| 33 | 2009.04.20 23:15 | buy | 17 | 0.05 | 1.29164 | 1.28676 | 1.29764 | ||
| 34 | 2009.04.21 01:07 | close | 17 | 0.05 | 1.29314 | 1.28676 | 1.29764 | 7.55 | 565.10 |
| 35 | 2009.04.21 22:38 | sell | 18 | 0.05 | 1.29502 | 1.29944 | 1.29002 | ||
| 36 | 2009.04.21 23:23 | close | 18 | 0.05 | 1.29400 | 1.29944 | 1.29002 | 5.10 | 570.20 |
| 37 | 2009.04.27 23:22 | buy | 19 | 0.05 | 1.30179 | 1.29861 | 1.30679 | ||
| 38 | 2009.04.28 00:48 | close | 19 | 0.05 | 1.30249 | 1.29861 | 1.30679 | 3.56 | 573.76 |
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Comments on Forex MegaDroid Backtest Results for April 2009
very interesting!!!!